Situations / Complex systems and policy
Complex systems and policy
Intervening in systems with many moving parts.
Traps you might be in
- No. 0217 Correlation-Causation FallacyYour best salespeople use the new dashboard most, so you make everyone use it.
- No. 0775 Probability NeglectYou cancel a flight after picturing a crash, without checking how likely a crash is.
- No. 0887 Scope InsensitivityThe fundraiser changes from saving 200 birds to saving 20,000, and you still reach for the same $20.
- No. 0895 Selection BiasYou read glowing reviews of a difficult course, then notice that every reviewer made it to the final lesson.
- No. 0944 Slippery Slope FallacyYour committee rejects one late application because, by next year, nobody will respect the deadline.
Tools to try
- No. 0001 A/B TestingYour team prefers the new signup page, but you keep the old one live for half the visitors to see what happens.
- No. 0069 BackcastingYou put a debt-free date on the calendar, then calculate what your balance must be three months before it.
- No. 0141 Chesterton’s FenceYou delete an old approval step, and the next payment goes to a bank account nobody verified.
- No. 0386 First Principles ThinkingYour team debates which competitor’s checkout to copy, and you ask what a customer actually needs to finish buying.
- No. 0388 Five WhysYou refill the label printer again, then notice nobody knows who is supposed to order the rolls.
- No. 0872 Safe-to-Fail ExperimentYou test the new scheduling rule on one volunteer team, with someone ready to restore the old schedule that afternoon.
- No. 0886 Scenario PlanningBefore you sign a three-year lease, you sketch what happens if your biggest customer leaves or demand doubles.
- No. 0892 Second-Order ThinkingYou waive a late fee to help one customer, then next month five more customers start paying late.
Patterns at play
- No. 0018 Adverse SelectionYou turn down another low offer for your well-maintained car because buyers price it like one hiding an expensive fault.
- No. 0153 Cobra EffectYou offer a reward for each pest killed, then discover someone is breeding pests to collect it.
- No. 0180 Compounding EffectYour savings earn $500 the first year, then $525 the next, even though you haven’t added a dollar.
- No. 0245 Default EffectYou silence your new phone after a week of alerts from settings you never chose.
- No. 0264 Diminishing ReturnsYou hire another pair of hands, but the same cramped kitchen sends out only a few more meals.
- No. 0318 EmergenceYou stop on a clear highway, then crawl forward, though there’s no accident, roadwork, or blocked lane ahead.
- No. 0379 Feedback LoopsYou turn up the microphone to be heard, and the speakers answer with a squeal.
- No. 0412 Gall’s LawYour team has designed the entire replacement system, but nobody has yet put one real order through it.
- No. 0437 Goodhart’s LawWhen a number becomes the goal, people find ways to move the number that don’t move the goal.
- No. 0597 Matthew EffectThe editor requests another book from the famous author while your first manuscript still sits unread.
- No. 0630 Moral HazardYour insurance pays the whole repair bill, so you accept the first quote instead of shopping around.
- No. 0665 Network EffectsYou download a new messaging app, then leave it unopened because everyone you need to reach is still somewhere else.
- No. 0679 Normalization of DevianceThe backup alarm has been silent for weeks, but every shift has gone fine, so today’s crew leaves it broken.
- No. 0721 Pareto PrincipleYour bank statement has forty small purchases, but rent and two bills swallow most of the money.
- No. 0728 Path DependenceYour team keeps using the clunky database because every report, script, and hire has been built around it.
- No. 0769 Principal-Agent ProblemYour adviser recommends a fund, and you discover it pays them more than the cheaper option would.
- No. 0773 Prisoner’s DilemmaYou check your phone while your friend talks, then look up to find your friend scrolling while you talk.
- No. 0861 Risk CompensationYou install a new collision warning system, then start following the car ahead a little more closely.
- No. 0936 Simpson’s ParadoxYour team’s conversion rate rises on both phones and computers, but the overall rate falls.
- No. 0991 Streisand EffectYou demand that a website delete an unflattering photo, and by dinner your friends are forwarding it to each other.
- No. 1009 Swiss Cheese ModelA patient gets the wrong dose even though the order has passed through a computer check, a pharmacist, and a nurse.
- No. 1030 Theory of ConstraintsYour team doubles its assembly speed, but finished orders still pile up beside the same overloaded testing bench.
- No. 1040 Tipping PointTwo people leave your weekly game night, and the remaining friends stop coming because they expect an empty table.
- No. 1043 Tragedy of the CommonsYou stop watering your lawn, but the shared reservoir keeps falling while the sprinklers run next door.
- No. 1064 Unintended ConsequencesYou turn off phone notifications, then find yourself checking the screen every five minutes.
Concepts to know
- No. 0056 Asymmetric InformationYou test-drive a used car for twenty minutes; the seller has driven it for five years.
- No. 0193 ConfoundingYou buy the supplement used by the healthiest people at your gym, without asking what else they do.
- No. 0307 Effect SizeThe tutoring program boasts a statistically significant gain; you look closer and find an average improvement of one test point.
- No. 0355 ExternalityYour neighbor finishes a cheap backyard bonfire, while you bring the laundry inside and close every window.
- No. 0589 Map vs. TerritoryYour phone says the path continues, but you’re standing in front of a locked gate.
- No. 0591 Marginal AnalysisThe hotel offers a room upgrade for $40, and you pause before clicking.
- No. 0659 Necessary vs. Sufficient ConditionsYour application meets every published minimum, but the rejection email still arrives.
- No. 0694 Opportunity CostYou accept a Saturday overtime shift, then realize it costs you the only afternoon you could spend with your visiting sister.
- No. 0698 Option ValueYou pay a little extra for a refundable ticket because you still don’t know whether you can go.
- No. 0830 Regression to the MeanAfter your lowest sales month all year, you take a course and celebrate when the next month’s numbers bounce back.
- No. 1102 Zero-Sum vs. Non-Zero-SumTwo teams ask for the last $50,000 in the budget, and every dollar awarded to one comes out of the other’s share.