Situations / Risk and safety
Risk and safety
Preventing failures, accidents and disasters.
Traps you might be in
- No. 0064 Authority BiasYou shelve your doubts about a risky purchase after noticing the recommendation comes from a famous professor.
- No. 0068 Availability HeuristicAfter watching a clip of a shark attack, you cancel a beach swim you were looking forward to.
- No. 0077 Base Rate FallacyYour screening result comes back positive, and you assume you’re almost certain to have the disease.
- No. 0124 Bystander EffectA passenger collapses, and you scan the faces around you before taking a step.
- No. 0217 Correlation-Causation FallacyYour best salespeople use the new dashboard most, so you make everyone use it.
- No. 0403 Framing EffectYou feel safer choosing surgery with a 90% survival rate than surgery with a 10% death rate.
- No. 0466 Hindsight BiasThe layoffs are announced, and last month’s vague worry suddenly feels like something you knew for sure.
- No. 0483 Illusion of ControlYou choose the lottery numbers yourself, then feel less willing to swap your ticket for one the machine picked.
- No. 0688 Omission BiasYou leave a dangerous machine running, relieved that any accident won’t come from a change you approved.
- No. 0697 Optimism BiasYou read that most applicants get rejected, then start planning what to wear on your first day.
- No. 0703 Outcome BiasYou drive home exhausted, arrive without a scratch, and decide you were fine to drive.
- No. 0705 Overconfidence EffectYou promise the client Friday, leave no buffer, and are surprised when one ordinary snag pushes delivery into next week.
- No. 0775 Probability NeglectYou cancel a flight after picturing a crash, without checking how likely a crash is.
- No. 0887 Scope InsensitivityThe fundraiser changes from saving 200 birds to saving 20,000, and you still reach for the same $20.
Tools to try
- No. 0087 Bayesian UpdatingThe fraud alert looks damning, until you learn how often it flags perfectly ordinary purchases.
- No. 0141 Chesterton’s FenceYou delete an old approval step, and the next payment goes to a bank account nobody verified.
- No. 0147 Circle of CompetenceYou understand the rental property’s repairs, but the agent’s spreadsheet leaves you guessing about the investment.
- No. 0388 Five WhysYou refill the label printer again, then notice nobody knows who is supposed to order the rolls.
- No. 0532 InversionBefore moving day, you list everything that could leave you outside the new apartment with a packed truck and no keys.
- No. 0590 Margin of SafetyYour flight lands at noon; you book the three o’clock train and leave the one o’clock ticket alone.
- No. 0754 Pre-MortemImagine the plan has already failed, then explain why. You’ll find problems you couldn’t see while hoping it would work.
- No. 0820 Red TeamingYour launch review is all green until a separate team tries to make the plan fail.
- No. 0872 Safe-to-Fail ExperimentYou test the new scheduling rule on one volunteer team, with someone ready to restore the old schedule that afternoon.
- No. 0886 Scenario PlanningBefore you sign a three-year lease, you sketch what happens if your biggest customer leaves or demand doubles.
- No. 1026 Testing EffectYou remember the answer you struggled to produce last week; you’ve forgotten the paragraph you read three times.
- No. 1079 Via NegativaYour week is packed, and canceling one standing meeting helps most, delivering more than a better calendar app could.
Patterns at play
- No. 0318 EmergenceYou stop on a clear highway, then crawl forward, though there’s no accident, roadwork, or blocked lane ahead.
- No. 0379 Feedback LoopsYou turn up the microphone to be heard, and the speakers answer with a squeal.
- No. 0444 GroupthinkIn the budget meeting, you leave your warning unspoken as everyone nods along with the director.
- No. 0630 Moral HazardYour insurance pays the whole repair bill, so you accept the first quote instead of shopping around.
- No. 0679 Normalization of DevianceThe backup alarm has been silent for weeks, but every shift has gone fine, so today’s crew leaves it broken.
- No. 0861 Risk CompensationYou install a new collision warning system, then start following the car ahead a little more closely.
- No. 1009 Swiss Cheese ModelA patient gets the wrong dose even though the order has passed through a computer check, a pharmacist, and a nurse.
- No. 1040 Tipping PointTwo people leave your weekly game night, and the remaining friends stop coming because they expect an empty table.
- No. 1043 Tragedy of the CommonsYou stop watering your lawn, but the shared reservoir keeps falling while the sprinklers run next door.
Concepts to know
- No. 0084 Bayes’ TheoremYour screening result comes back positive, and you start making plans as if the diagnosis is settled.
- No. 0343 Expected ValueThe repair shop offers a $180 protection plan, and you weigh that price against repairs you might never need.
- No. 0376 Fat-Tailed DistributionsYour insurance budget survives hundreds of ordinary claims, then one warehouse fire costs more than all of them put together.
- No. 0551 Law of Large NumbersYour first ten coin flips produce eight heads, and you start wondering whether the coin is fair.
- No. 0556 Leading vs. Lagging IndicatorYour support dashboard stays green all week, but unanswered tickets are piling up before customers start canceling.
- No. 0864 Risk vs. UncertaintyYour spreadsheet gives a new store a 12% chance of failure, though nobody can explain where the 12% came from.